According to the analysis cited by the New York Times, the Islamic Republic’s top priority is to preserve its regime. To do so, Tehran is attempting to increase the costs of the war to the United States through military casualties, higher energy prices and inflation, in the hope that former US President Donald Trump will eventually decide to withdraw from the conflict.
An “endurance test”
Diplomats and analysts believe Iran is attempting to expand the battlefield beyond its territory and turn the conflict into a broader regional crisis.
Key objectives reportedly include:
- Target oil infrastructure in neighboring countries
- Interruption of air traffic in the Gulf region
- Threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz alone handles nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas shipments, meaning any disruption could send global energy prices soaring.
Vali Nasr, an expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, described the conflict as a contest of willpower.
“Iran faces a much higher quality military. Its strategy is to test its adversary’s will by expanding the battlefield, complicating the war and increasing risks to the global economy.”
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said Iran hoped to generate enough political and economic pressure to push Washington to end the war.
This approach has been labeled an “asymmetric resistance strategy” accept initial losses while preserving the ability to increase later.
Growing regional impact
The strategy is already showing consequences across the region. The attacks targeted US bases and diplomatic facilities, killing six US soldiers and shooting down three planes. Meanwhile, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has joined the conflict.
Several Gulf states have also expressed concern that their energy infrastructure is under threat. Oil and gas prices have risen amid instability, while shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed dramatically. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, recently said that Tehran is prepared for a long war, including a step-by-step escalation plan.
Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady described the conflict as a race against time. The United States, Israel and their allies are attempting to destroy Iranian missile launchers and command infrastructure as quickly as possible before expensive intercept systems run out.
Even Israel, known for its advanced air defense, reportedly faced shortages during a 12-day conflict with Iran in June 2025, forcing it to prioritize interceptions only when missiles threatened critical targets.
Trump’s next move remains uncertain
On March 2, Donald Trump said the war would continue for at least another month and did not rule out the deployment of US ground troops. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that more intense attacks could still be ahead. The Pentagon also announced additional deployments of troops and fighter jets.
Despite Iran’s attacks on Gulf states, including airports and hotels, regional governments have not broken with Washington. The members of the Gulf Cooperation Council reaffirmed that the security of their member states is indivisible.
Some Gulf countries may now allow greater US access to their airspace and territory after initially hesitating. Meanwhile, European countries such as the United Kingdom, France and Germany, which previously criticized Iran but avoided direct involvement, are reportedly becoming increasingly willing to act to protect their interests in the Gulf.
The global stakes are rising
Europe has become increasingly dependent on Gulf energy after reducing its reliance on Russia, while around half of India’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. These factors could increase international pressure on Washington to shorten the war, even as Israel seeks to permanently neutralize the Iranian military threat.
Trump has repeatedly said he would prefer a deal with Iran and recently held up Nicolás Maduro as an example of a political outcome in which leadership could change without dismantling the entire state apparatus. Analysts say predicting Trump’s next move remains extremely difficult.
Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council noted that the United States may already consider some objectives accomplished, including weakening Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities and eliminating several key leaders. This means that Washington could potentially declare success and disengage at almost any time.
Sources: Znews
